Market specifications

This page holds the full contract specification for markets listed on MNX mainnet: what you are trading, how the price forms, and how each market settles. The current market list for this environment is returned by GET /v0/markets. The short description shown in the app is a summary; each market's specification below and the shared rules on this page govern settlement. While the platform is in beta, specifications are subject to change.

Zero Resolutions

The exchange currently does not support settlement at exactly zero. For all binary and numeric futures, including valuation futures, a resolution of zero is settled at 1 wei: 0.000000000000000001 (10⁻¹⁸) in the market's quoted price units, or $0.000000000000000001 for a USD-quoted price. This applies wherever the contract terms specify zero or $0, including when the required rounding produces zero.

Perpetual futures

Contracts with no expiry that track an underlying price. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

TRUMP — Trump approval rating

Tracks Donald Trump's job approval average published by VoteHub, in percentage points.

TRUMP tracks VoteHub's published average of the share of respondents who approve of Donald Trump's job performance, expressed in percentage points. An approval average of 36.9% corresponds to a reference value of 36.9.

This perpetual has no scheduled expiry or settlement date. Missing or discontinued source data does not automatically trigger settlement. If data from VoteHub remains unavailable for an extended period, MNX may switch to another oracle measuring Donald Trump's job approval rating or resolve the market.

The TRUMP oracle methodology governs source selection and corrections.

AAOI — Applied Optoelectronics

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI).

Underlying: Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. common stock, ticker AAOI.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one AAOI share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 3287 (Equity.US.AAOI/USD).

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the underlying share price.

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports AAOI closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:AAOI perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

AAPL — Apple

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Apple Inc. (AAPL).

Underlying: Apple Inc. common stock, ticker AAPL.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one AAPL share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 922 (Equity.US.AAPL/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports AAPL closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:AAPL perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

AMD — AMD

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD).

Underlying: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. common stock, ticker AMD.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one AMD share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 949 (Equity.US.AMD/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports AMD closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:AMD perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

AMZN — Amazon

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN).

Underlying: Amazon.com, Inc. common stock, ticker AMZN.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one AMZN share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 954 (Equity.US.AMZN/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports AMZN closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:AMZN perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

ASML — ASML Holding

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML).

Underlying: ASML Holding N.V. shares, ticker ASML.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one ASML share, quoted in US dollars.

AVGO — Broadcom

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Broadcom Inc. (AVGO).

Underlying: Broadcom Inc. common stock, ticker AVGO.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one AVGO share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 972 (Equity.US.AVGO/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports AVGO closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:AVGO perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

BABA — Alibaba Group ADR

Perpetual future tracking the price of one US-listed share (American Depositary Share, representing eight ordinary shares) of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA), traded on the NYSE.

Underlying: Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares (ADSs), ticker BABA — the US-listed shares, each representing eight ordinary shares — listed on the NYSE.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one BABA ADS on the NYSE, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 2271 (Equity.US.BABA/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports BABA closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:BABA perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

BE — Bloom Energy

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Bloom Energy Corporation (BE).

Underlying: Bloom Energy Corporation Class A common stock, ticker BE.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one BE share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 2721 (Equity.US.BE/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports BE closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:BE perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

BTC — Bitcoin

Perpetual future tracking the price of one bitcoin (BTC) in US dollars.

Underlying: Bitcoin (BTC), the native asset of the Bitcoin network. Wrapped or bridged bitcoin tokens are not the underlying.

Price reference: Pyth Lazer crypto feed 1 (Crypto.BTC/USD), the price of one bitcoin in US dollars aggregated by Pyth from its publishers.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

Trading hours: The underlying trades around the clock, so this market trades and accrues funding 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, including weekends and US market holidays.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

CBRS — Cerebras Systems

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Cerebras Systems Inc. (CBRS).

Underlying: Cerebras Systems Inc. Class A common stock, ticker CBRS, listed on Nasdaq.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one CBRS share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 3246 (Equity.US.CBRS/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports CBRS closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:CBRS perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

CRWV — CoreWeave

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV).

Underlying: CoreWeave, Inc. common stock, ticker CRWV.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one CRWV share, quoted in US dollars.

DELL — Dell Technologies

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL).

Underlying: Dell Technologies Inc. Class C common stock, ticker DELL.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one DELL share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 1074 (Equity.US.DELL/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports DELL closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:DELL perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

DRAM — Roundhill Memory ETF

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), an actively managed fund investing in global semiconductor memory companies.

Underlying: The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), an actively managed exchange-traded fund investing in global semiconductor memory companies.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one DRAM share, quoted in US dollars.

ETH — Ethereum

Perpetual future tracking the price of one ether (ETH), the native asset of Ethereum, in US dollars.

Underlying: Ether (ETH), the native asset of the Ethereum network. Wrapped, staked or bridged ether tokens are not the underlying.

Price reference: Pyth Lazer crypto feed 2 (Crypto.ETH/USD), the price of one ether in US dollars aggregated by Pyth from its publishers.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

Trading hours: The underlying trades around the clock, so this market trades and accrues funding 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, including weekends and US market holidays.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

EWY — iShares MSCI South Korea ETF

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), a fund holding large and mid-sized South Korean companies.

Underlying: The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), an exchange-traded fund that tracks an index of large and mid-sized South Korean companies.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one EWY share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 2944 (Equity.US.EWY/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports EWY closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:EWY perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, distributions, trading halts and closures of the fund are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

GOLD — Gold

Perpetual future tracking the spot price of gold in US dollars per troy ounce (XAU/USD).

Underlying: Spot gold, quoted as the XAU/USD exchange rate — the US dollar price of one troy ounce of gold.

Price reference: Pyth Lazer metal feed 346 (Metal.XAU/USD), the spot price of one troy ounce of gold in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the gold price about 23 hours a day on weekdays, from Sunday 18:00 to Friday 17:00 New York time with a daily break from 17:00 to 18:00. While Pyth reports the market closed, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:GOLD perpetual, quoted in the same unit, so the market keeps trading. Funding accrues only while Pyth reports the market open.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

GOOGL — Alphabet (Google)

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Google's parent company.

Underlying: Alphabet Inc. (Google's parent company) common stock, ticker GOOGL.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one GOOGL share, quoted in US dollars.

H100 — SemiAnalysis H100 Selected Spot Rental Price Index

Perpetual future tracking the rental price of NVIDIA H100 GPUs, as measured by the SemiAnalysis H100 Selected Spot Rental Price Index.

Underlying: The SemiAnalysis H100 Selected Spot Rental Price Index, which measures spot rental prices for NVIDIA H100 GPUs — a benchmark for the cost of AI compute.

Price reference: The market tracks the published index value from SemiAnalysis, quoted in US dollars.

HYPE — Hyperliquid

Perpetual future tracking the price of one HYPE, the native token of Hyperliquid, in US dollars.

Underlying: HYPE, the native token of the Hyperliquid blockchain. Wrapped or bridged HYPE tokens are not the underlying.

Price reference: Pyth Lazer crypto feed 110 (Crypto.HYPE/USD), the price of one HYPE in US dollars aggregated by Pyth from its publishers.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

Trading hours: The underlying trades around the clock, so this market trades and accrues funding 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, including weekends and US market holidays.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

INTC — Intel

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Intel Corporation (INTC).

Underlying: Intel Corporation common stock, ticker INTC.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one INTC share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 1201 (Equity.US.INTC/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports INTC closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:INTC perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

IREN — IREN

Perpetual future tracking the price of one ordinary share of IREN Limited (IREN).

Underlying: IREN Limited ordinary shares, ticker IREN, listed on Nasdaq.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one IREN share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 2363 (Equity.US.IREN/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports IREN closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:IREN perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

LITE — Lumentum

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE).

Underlying: Lumentum Holdings Inc. common stock, ticker LITE.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one LITE share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 3237 (Equity.US.LITE/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports LITE closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:LITE perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

MEGA — MegaETH

Perpetual future tracking the price of one MEGA, the token of MegaETH, in US dollars.

Underlying: MEGA, the token of the MegaETH network. Wrapped or bridged MEGA tokens are not the underlying.

Price reference: Pyth Lazer crypto feed 3205 (Crypto.MEGA/USD), the price of one MEGA in US dollars aggregated by Pyth from its publishers. Pyth prices whose bid-ask spread is wider than 1% are not used, and there is no other price source: while the spread stays wider, the price holds.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

Trading hours: The underlying trades around the clock, so this market trades and accrues funding 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, including weekends and US market holidays.

Risk: MNX runs on MegaETH. If the MegaETH network halts, all MNX trading, liquidations, deposits and withdrawals stop with it, and news about MegaETH is the kind of event most likely to move MEGA sharply. A MEGA position can therefore move against you while you cannot act, and when the network resumes, the price may be far from where it was before the halt. Margin is held in USDm, a stablecoin also issued on MegaETH, so the same event can affect your collateral and this market at once.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

META — Meta (Facebook)

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), the company behind Facebook.

Underlying: Meta Platforms, Inc. (Facebook) common stock, ticker META.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one META share, quoted in US dollars.

MINIMAX — MiniMax Group

Perpetual future tracking the price of one Hong Kong-listed share of MiniMax Group Inc. (0100.HK), quoted in US dollars.

Underlying: MiniMax Group Inc. shares (0100.HK), listed in Hong Kong.

Price reference: Pyth Lazer equity feed 3257, converted from Hong Kong dollars to US dollars using Pyth Lazer FX feed 1510.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

MRNA — Moderna

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Moderna, Inc. (MRNA).

Underlying: Moderna, Inc. common stock, ticker MRNA.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one MRNA share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 1288 (Equity.US.MRNA/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market and after-hours trading, from 04:00 to 20:00 New York time on weekdays, but not overnight. Between 20:00 and 04:00 New York time on weekdays, and while Pyth reports MRNA closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:MRNA perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

MRVL — Marvell Technology

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL).

Underlying: Marvell Technology, Inc. common stock, ticker MRVL.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one MRVL share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 1289 (Equity.US.MRVL/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports MRVL closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:MRVL perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

MSFT — Microsoft

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT).

Underlying: Microsoft Corporation common stock, ticker MSFT.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one MSFT share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 1292 (Equity.US.MSFT/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports MSFT closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:MSFT perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

MU — Micron Technology

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Micron Technology, Inc. (MU).

Underlying: Micron Technology, Inc. common stock, ticker MU.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one MU share, quoted in US dollars.

NBIS — Nebius Group

Perpetual future tracking the price of one Class A ordinary share of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS).

Underlying: Nebius Group N.V. Class A ordinary shares, ticker NBIS, listed on Nasdaq.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one NBIS share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 2826 (Equity.US.NBIS/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports NBIS closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:NBIS perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

NVDA — NVIDIA

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA).

Underlying: NVIDIA Corporation common stock, ticker NVDA.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one NVDA share, quoted in US dollars.

ORCL — Oracle

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Oracle Corporation (ORCL).

Underlying: Oracle Corporation common stock, ticker ORCL.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one ORCL share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 1324 (Equity.US.ORCL/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports ORCL closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:ORCL perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

PLTR — Palantir Technologies

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR).

Underlying: Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A common stock, ticker PLTR.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one PLTR share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 1346 (Equity.US.PLTR/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports PLTR closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:PLTR perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

SILVER — Silver

Perpetual future tracking the spot price of silver in US dollars per troy ounce (XAG/USD).

Underlying: Spot silver, quoted as the XAG/USD exchange rate — the US dollar price of one troy ounce of silver.

Price reference: Pyth Lazer metal feed 345 (Metal.XAG/USD), the spot price of one troy ounce of silver in US dollars.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the silver price about 23 hours a day on weekdays, from Sunday 18:00 to Friday 17:00 New York time with a daily break from 17:00 to 18:00. While Pyth reports the market closed, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:SILVER perpetual, quoted in the same unit, so the market keeps trading. Funding accrues only while Pyth reports the market open.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

SKHY — SK hynix Inc. ADR

Perpetual future tracking the price of one US-listed share (American Depositary Share) of SK hynix Inc. (SKHY), traded on Nasdaq.

Underlying: SK hynix Inc. American Depositary Shares (ADSs), ticker SKHY, listed on Nasdaq. Each ADS represents one-tenth of one SK hynix common share; the common shares trade on the Korea Exchange as 000660.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one SKHY ADS on Nasdaq, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 3437 (Equity.US.SKHY/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports SKHY closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:SKHY perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

SMH — VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

Underlying: The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index of large US-listed semiconductor companies.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one SMH share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 2372 (Equity.US.SMH/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. There is no other price source: while Pyth reports SMH closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price stops updating, so liquidations pause after three minutes and trading after 15 minutes, until the next session opens. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, distributions, trading halts and closures of the fund are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

SNDK — Sandisk Corporation

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Sandisk Corporation (SNDK).

Underlying: Sandisk Corporation common stock, ticker SNDK.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one SNDK share, quoted in US dollars.

SOL — Solana

Perpetual future tracking the price of one SOL, the native asset of Solana, in US dollars.

Underlying: Solana (SOL), the native asset of the Solana network. Wrapped, staked or bridged SOL tokens are not the underlying.

Price reference: Pyth Lazer crypto feed 6 (Crypto.SOL/USD), the price of one SOL in US dollars aggregated by Pyth from its publishers.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

Trading hours: The underlying trades around the clock, so this market trades and accrues funding 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, including weekends and US market holidays.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

SPCX — Space Exploration Technologies

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of SpaceX — Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock (SPCX).

Underlying: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) Class A Common Stock, ticker SPCX.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one SPCX Class A share, quoted in US dollars.

TLT — iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), a fund holding long-term US Treasury bonds.

Underlying: The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), an exchange-traded fund that tracks long-term US Treasury bonds (maturities of 20 years or more).

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one TLT share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 1425 (Equity.US.TLT/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. There is no other price source: while Pyth reports TLT closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price stops updating, so liquidations pause after three minutes and trading after 15 minutes, until the next session opens. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, distributions, trading halts and closures of the fund are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

TSLA — Tesla

Perpetual future tracking the price of one share of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA).

Underlying: Tesla, Inc. common stock, ticker TSLA.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one TSLA share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 1435 (Equity.US.TSLA/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market, after-hours and overnight trading, from Sunday 20:00 to Friday 20:00 New York time. While Pyth reports TSLA closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:TSLA perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, dividends, trading halts, acquisitions and delistings are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor

Perpetual future tracking the price of one US-listed share (American Depositary Receipt) of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM).

Underlying: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), ticker TSM — the US-listed shares representing the underlying company's stock.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one TSM ADR, quoted in US dollars.

URNM — Sprott Uranium Miners ETF

Perpetual future tracking the share price of the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM), a fund holding companies in the uranium mining industry.

Underlying: The Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM), an exchange-traded fund holding companies in the uranium mining industry.

Price reference: The market tracks the price of one URNM share, quoted in US dollars, as published by Pyth Lazer equity feed 3163 (Equity.US.URNM/USD).

Trading hours: Pyth publishes the price in regular, pre-market and after-hours trading, from 04:00 to 20:00 New York time on weekdays, but not overnight. Between 20:00 and 04:00 New York time on weekdays, and while Pyth reports URNM closed, as over weekends and US market holidays, the price follows the Hyperliquid xyz:URNM perpetual, within the limits described in the oracle methodology. Pyth prices whose bid-ask spread is wider than 1% are not used; URNM quotes are often wider than that in pre-market and after-hours trading, when its price can stop updating, so liquidations pause after three minutes and trading after 15 minutes. Funding accrues only during the regular US session, 9:30 to 16:00 New York time on trading days or until 13:00 on early-close days, and is paused overnight, on weekends and on market holidays.

Corporate actions: Splits, distributions, trading halts and closures of the fund are handled under the stock perpetuals corporate actions policy.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

ZAI — Zhipu AI

Perpetual future tracking the price of one Hong Kong-listed share of Z.AI (Zhipu) Co., Ltd. (2513.HK), quoted in US dollars.

Underlying: Z.AI Co., Ltd. (also known as Zhipu) shares (2513.HK), listed in Hong Kong.

Price reference: Pyth Lazer equity feed 3258, converted from Hong Kong dollars to US dollars using Pyth Lazer FX feed 1510.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

ZEC — Zcash

Perpetual future tracking the price of one ZEC, the native asset of Zcash, in US dollars.

Underlying: Zcash (ZEC), the native asset of the Zcash network. Wrapped or bridged ZEC tokens are not the underlying.

Price reference: Pyth Lazer crypto feed 66 (Crypto.ZEC/USD), the price of one ZEC in US dollars aggregated by Pyth from its publishers.

Contract style: Perpetual future — the contract has no expiry or settlement date. Periodic funding payments between longs and shorts keep the contract price anchored to the reference price.

Trading hours: The underlying trades around the clock, so this market trades and accrues funding 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, including weekends and US market holidays.

Oracle methodology: See the oracle methodology page at https://docs.mnx.fi/contracts/oracle-methodology.

Numeric futures

Contracts that settle to a number — a valuation, an index level, a rate — determined by the resolution rules below.

ANTHROPIC — Anthropic IPO Future

Futures contract on Anthropic's market capitalization after IPO — or its last public valuation if no listing happens before 2028 — in billions of US dollars.

Underlying entity: Anthropic.

This contract settles to Anthropic's market capitalization after its IPO, or — if no listing event occurs before 2028 — to its last public valuation, denominated in billions of US dollars.

Full settlement rules, listing-event definitions, valuation sources, and edge cases are defined in the AI Valuation Futures master specification, which governs this market.

DEEPSEEK — DeepSeek IPO Future

Futures contract on DeepSeek's market capitalization after IPO — or its last public valuation if no listing happens before 2028 — in billions of US dollars.

Underlying entity: DeepSeek.

This contract settles to DeepSeek's market capitalization after its IPO, or — if no listing event occurs before 2028 — to its last public valuation, denominated in billions of US dollars.

Full settlement rules, listing-event definitions, valuation sources, and edge cases are defined in the AI Valuation Futures master specification, which governs this market.

FOMC1226 — Fed target rate, Dec 2026

Settles to the upper bound of the Fed's target interest-rate range announced at its December 2026 meeting, expressed as a percentage.

FOMC1226 settles to the upper bound of the federal funds target range announced at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for December 8–9, 2026. The settlement value is expressed in percentage points: a range of 4.25%–4.50% settles at 4.50.

Trading cutoff. Trading ends on December 9, 2026 at 1:59 p.m. New York time (18:59 UTC), or the first official public release of the qualifying decision, whichever occurs first. Rescheduling does not extend trading beyond that cutoff.

Qualifying rate. The rate is the target announced for the initial implementation of that meeting's decision, even if its effective date follows the announcement. An unchanged range uses its existing upper bound. Earlier scheduled or emergency decisions count only to the extent their effects remain in that target. The effective federal funds rate, range midpoint, economic projections and press-conference commentary do not determine settlement.

Sources and corrections. The official FOMC policy statement on federalreserve.gov controls. If it is unavailable or omits the target, the accompanying official implementation note controls. Explicit Federal Reserve corrections published no later than 60 minutes after the first official release identifying the applicable target supersede the original figure. At the end of that window the value is fixed; later corrections and policy decisions do not change it. Temporary source unavailability delays verification and does not establish that no decision was published.

Rescheduling or cancellation. An officially rescheduled December meeting qualifies if its decision is published by December 31, 2026 at 4:00 p.m. New York time (21:00 UTC), inclusive. If no qualifying decision is published by that deadline, including because the meeting is canceled or postponed beyond it, settlement uses the officially published target-range upper bound in effect at the deadline. Later evidence may establish what was published or in effect by that deadline.

Target framework changes. If the Fed replaces its range with a single federal funds target, that target is used. A change in range width does not change the use of its upper bound. If the Fed discontinues the federal funds target before the applicable determination, settlement uses the last official upper bound or single target in effect before discontinuation.

Settlement value. The qualifying target is used without additional rounding. A negative target resolves to zero. There is no maximum settlement value.

GDP27 — US nominal GDP 2027

Settles to nominal U.S. gross domestic product for 2027, in trillions of current dollars, using the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate.

GDP27 settles to nominal U.S. gross domestic product for calendar year 2027, in trillions of current U.S. dollars. Use the full-year value in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) advance estimate for the fourth quarter and year 2027.

Use the first published estimate, plus any official error corrections to that release before settlement. Ignore later estimates and routine revisions. Apply the same rule to a fallback publication.

Rounding. Convert to trillions using all available precision, then round once to the nearest 0.001, with exact halves rounded up. Divide figures in billions by 1,000 before rounding.

Source changes. If the release’s name, format, location or structure changes, or an official successor takes over from BEA, use the corresponding initial full-year estimate. Authentic archived or republished copies are acceptable.

Fallbacks. Temporary publication delays or website outages alone do not trigger a fallback; resolution may remain pending.

If BEA and any official successor announce that no qualifying estimate will be published, or GDP publication permanently ceases without a successor, use the first published historical annual value for 2027 in the World Bank’s U.S. GDP (current US$) series. Forecasts and projections do not qualify.

If no qualifying value can be established from those sources, MNX will determine it using the best available information and reasonable judgment, consistent with this market’s definition, units and rounding rules.

LABREV — OpenAI + Anthropic 2027 revenue

Futures contract on the combined 2027 revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic, in billions of US dollars, as each company reports it.

Underlying. LABREV settles to the combined revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic for calendar year 2027, in billions of US dollars.

Revenue. Each company's total revenue for its business as a whole, whatever its legal structure, as the company reports it, including its gross or net presentation of sales through partners. MNX does not restate either company onto a common basis. Annualized run-rates ("ARR"), bookings, and forecasts are not revenue, except as inputs to the estimate below.

Sources. For each company, MNX uses the best available public information at settlement, in this order:

1. The company's financial statements, securities filings, or official statements of full-year 2027 revenue; 2. Full-year 2027 revenue reported by The Information, Reuters, Bloomberg, the Financial Times, or The Wall Street Journal, attributed to company documents or people with direct knowledge; 3. Otherwise, an MNX estimate: revenue reported by the sources above for parts of 2027, plus, for the rest of the year, the company's average annualized run-rate over that time (interpolated linearly between reports, including the nearest ones before and after 2027) multiplied by the fraction of the year it covers.

Within a tier, MNX uses the most direct and most recent figure. Full-year figures published before 2028 are forecasts and do not qualify.

Settlement. The settlement value is the sum of the two revenue figures, expressed in billions of US dollars and rounded to the nearest 0.5 (representing $500 million of combined revenue). There is no maximum settlement value. The market's order-price limits do not constrain settlement.

Settlement is expected on the first exchange business day on or after July 1, 2028; MNX may settle earlier once tier-1 figures are available for both companies.

Amendments. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms; MNX may correct or delay a determination before it is effected, and settlement is final once effected.

LFPR27 — US labor force participation, Dec 2027

Futures contract on the US labor force participation rate — the share of the adult population working or looking for work — for December 2027, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A published 61.4 percent settles at 61.4.

Underlying. Contracts settle to the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate, seasonally adjusted, as first published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for the reference month of December 2027, expressed in percentage points (for example, a published 61.4 percent settles at 61.4).

Primary source. BLS Current Population Survey series LNS11300000, as published in the monthly Employment Situation news release and mirrored as FRED series CIVPART; if the two differ, the BLS-published figure controls.

First print counts. Settlement uses the value first published for the December 2027 reference month (normally in the Employment Situation release published in early January 2028); later revisions are disregarded, except that a BLS correction of a publication error, published before settlement, supersedes the erroneous figure.

Fallbacks. If BLS does not publish a December 2027 value (for example, due to a lapse in appropriations), settlement uses the most recent earlier 2027 reference month first published before settlement; if the December 2027 value has not been published by April 30, 2028, settlement proceeds at that time on that basis. If BLS discontinues, renames, or materially redefines the series, MNX expects to settle on the successor headline participation rate designated by BLS, or the closest equivalent public measure at MNX discretion.

Settlement mechanics. Round the qualifying rate to the nearest 0.1 percentage point. The participation rate's natural range is 0–100 percentage points; the market's order-price limits impose no additional settlement cap or floor. For example, a qualifying rate of 49 percent settles at 49, and a qualifying rate of 71 percent settles at 71.

Settlement is expected within 10 business days of the qualifying release.

MOONSHOT — Moonshot AI IPO Future

Futures contract on Moonshot AI's market capitalization after IPO — or its last public valuation if no listing happens before 2028 — in billions of US dollars.

Underlying entity: Moonshot AI.

This contract settles to Moonshot AI's market capitalization after its IPO, or — if no listing event occurs before 2028 — to its last public valuation, denominated in billions of US dollars.

Full settlement rules, listing-event definitions, valuation sources, and edge cases are defined in the AI Valuation Futures master specification, which governs this market.

OPENAI — OpenAI IPO Future

Futures contract on OpenAI's market capitalization after IPO — or its last public valuation if no listing happens before 2028 — in billions of US dollars.

Underlying entity: OpenAI.

This contract settles to OpenAI's market capitalization after its IPO, or — if no listing event occurs before 2028 — to its last public valuation, denominated in billions of US dollars.

Full settlement rules, listing-event definitions, valuation sources, and edge cases are defined in the AI Valuation Futures master specification, which governs this market.

PAPER26 — Papertrade PAPER, Dec 2026

Settles to the price of Papertrade’s PAPER token in USD at the end of 2026, or zero if PAPER has never genuinely traded on a spot market by expiry

Asset and expiry. PAPER26 settles to the USD price of one Papertrade PAPER token on HyperEVM, contract 0xe40f17915DAa230324030003A197cdAEf2261C0e. The market expires on December 31, 2026 at 16:00 UTC. Unrelated assets using the PAPER name or ticker do not qualify.

Resolution price. The settlement price is the median hourly USD price reported by CoinGecko during the 24 hours immediately preceding expiry: December 30, 2026 at 16:00 UTC, inclusive, through December 31, 2026 at 16:00 UTC, exclusive.

Calculation. Use CoinGecko's historical price series at hourly granularity, taking the last reported observation within each hourly interval. Each hour receives equal weight. Sort the observations from lowest to highest and take the middle price, or average the two middle prices if there is an even number. For a complete set of 24 observations, average the 12th and 13th prices. If PAPER first begins spot trading during the observation window, omit hourly intervals ending before its first spot trade.

Backup source. If CoinGecko cannot provide the required hourly history, use CoinMarketCap's hourly historical price candles for the same asset and observation window. Take each UTC hour's closing USD price and apply the same median calculation and first-trade omission rule. Use one source for the entire calculation.

No trading or unavailable data. If PAPER has never genuinely traded on a spot market by expiry, the settlement price is $0. If PAPER has traded but neither source provides the required history, settlement is delayed while the data issue is resolved. The observation window remains fixed; missing price data alone does not trigger settlement at zero.

Settlement mechanics. Round the calculated price to the nearest $0.00001. There is no maximum settlement price. Settlement is expected shortly after expiry, subject to data availability.

Amendments and finality. MNX may interpret or amend these resolution terms, including for open positions, in accordance with the platform Terms. Settlement determinations may be corrected or delayed before settlement is effected. Settlement is final once effected.

Contract style. PAPER26 is a numeric future with no funding payments. Before settlement, its price is formed by trading on MNX's internal order book under the numeric futures oracle methodology.

PDOOM — p(doom)

Settles to the median probability of AI-caused human extinction or unrecoverable civilizational collapse before 2100, estimated by three AI models selected at year-end 2027.

Resolution. PDOOM settles to the median of three AI models’ integer percentage estimates, using the prompt below under AI Council Resolution.

Model selection. Use the models available at the end of December 31, 2027 UTC.

The resolution value is in percentage points (10 means 10%).

Settlement prompt:

What is your best estimate of the probability, as an integer from 0 to 100, that artificial intelligence causes human extinction or an unrecoverable collapse of human civilization before 2100? Count any scenario in which AI is a direct cause or a necessary enabler. Respond with a single integer only.

PRL26 — Pearl PRL, Dec 2026

Settles to the price of Pearl’s native PRL coin in USD at the end of 2026.

Asset and expiry. PRL26 settles to the USD price of one native PRL coin on the Pearl mainnet developed by Pearl Research Labs, identified by the Pearl network source and mainnet explorer. The market expires on December 31, 2026 at 16:00 UTC. Only this native Pearl asset qualifies; unrelated assets using the PRL ticker and wrapped tokens do not.

Calculation. Use CoinGecko's historical price series at hourly granularity, taking the last reported observation within each hourly interval. Each hour receives equal weight. Sort the observations from lowest to highest and take the middle price, or average the two middle prices if there is an even number. For a complete set of 24 observations, average the 12th and 13th prices. If PRL first begins spot trading during the observation window, omit hourly intervals ending before its first spot trade.

No trading or unavailable data. If PRL has never genuinely traded on a spot market by expiry, the settlement price is $0. If PRL has traded but neither source provides the required history, settlement is delayed while the data issue is resolved. The observation window remains fixed; missing price data alone does not trigger settlement at zero.

Settlement mechanics. Round the calculated price to the nearest $0.001. There is no maximum settlement price. Settlement is expected shortly after expiry, subject to data availability.

Contract style. PRL26 is a numeric future with no funding payments. Before settlement, its price is formed by trading on MNX's internal order book under the numeric futures oracle methodology.

XTEN26 — Extended XTEN, Dec 2026

Settles to the price of Extended’s XTEN token in USD at the end of 2026, or zero if XTEN has never genuinely traded on a spot market by expiry

Asset and expiry. XTEN26 settles to the USD price of one XTEN token, the native token issued by Extended, the perpetuals exchange at extended.exchange (formerly X10; @extendedapp), as identified in Extended's official announcements. The market expires on December 31, 2026 at 16:00 UTC. Unrelated assets using the XTEN name or ticker do not qualify, including the BondBloxx exchange-traded fund that trades as XTEN.

Chains and representations. The token qualifies on whichever chain Extended launches it. If Extended issues or recognizes the same token on more than one chain, or through an official bridge, all those representations are the same asset and the resolution sources' aggregate USD price for it is used. Wrapped or synthetic tokens issued by third parties, pre-market or points contracts, perpetual futures and prediction markets on the token do not count as the asset or as spot trading. If Extended renames the token or changes its ticker before expiry, the renamed token qualifies. If Extended redenominates the token, the settlement price is adjusted so that it reflects one token as first issued.

Calculation. Use CoinGecko's historical price series at hourly granularity, taking the last reported observation within each hourly interval. Each hour receives equal weight. Sort the observations from lowest to highest and take the middle price, or average the two middle prices if there is an even number. For a complete set of 24 observations, average the 12th and 13th prices. If XTEN first begins spot trading during the observation window, omit hourly intervals ending before its first spot trade.

No token generation event or no trading. If XTEN has never genuinely traded on a spot market by expiry, the settlement price is $0. This includes the case where Extended holds no token generation event before expiry, and the case where tokens are distributed or claimable, for example by airdrop, but cannot yet be traded on any spot market. If XTEN has traded but neither source provides the required history, settlement is delayed while the data issue is resolved. The observation window remains fixed; missing price data alone does not trigger settlement at zero.

Settlement mechanics. Round the calculated price to the nearest $0.0005. There is no maximum settlement price. Settlement is expected shortly after expiry, subject to data availability.

Contract style. XTEN26 is a numeric future with no funding payments. Before settlement, its price is formed by trading on MNX's internal order book under the numeric futures oracle methodology.

SFHOME27 — San Francisco home value, Dec 2027

Futures contract on the typical San Francisco home value in December 2027, per Zillow's Home Value Index, in thousands of US dollars. A published typical value of $1,450,000 settles at 1450.

Underlying. Contracts settle to the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for the City of San Francisco, California — all homes (single-family residences, condos, and co-ops), smoothed, seasonally adjusted — for the reference month of December 2027, expressed in thousands of US dollars (for example, a published typical home value of $1,450,000 settles at 1450).

Primary source. Zillow Research's published ZHVI data (Zillow Research data and Zillow's San Francisco home-values page).

First print counts. Settlement uses the value first published for the December 2027 reference month (normally released in January 2028). ZHVI's routine re-estimation of its full history in later releases is disregarded, except that a Zillow correction of a publication error, published before settlement, supersedes the erroneous figure.

Fallbacks. If Zillow has not published a December 2027 value by February 29, 2028, settlement uses the most recent earlier reference month first published before settlement. If Zillow discontinues, renames, or materially redefines the index, MNX expects to settle on the successor headline home-value measure for San Francisco designated by Zillow, or the closest equivalent public measure at MNX discretion.

Settlement mechanics. Express the qualifying home value in thousands of US dollars and round to the nearest 1 (representing $1,000 of home value). There is no maximum settlement value. The market's order-price limits do not constrain settlement. For example, a qualifying home value of $1,000,000 settles at 1000.

Settlement is expected within 10 business days of the qualifying release.

Binary futures

Contracts that settle to $1 if an event happens and $0 otherwise, or to a tie or partial value where a specification provides one, so the price can be read as the market-implied probability of the outcome.

RSI — Anthropic R&D majority AI 2027

Pays $1 if Anthropic’s R&D Automation Index shows AI leading or autonomously performing at least half of its AI research and development before 2028; otherwise $0.

RSI pays $1 if Anthropic’s R&D Automation Index shows AI leading or autonomously performing at least 50% of its AI research and development before 2028; otherwise $0.

Measurement. Use Anthropic’s most precise official company-wide figures for each measurement and version, using its published task weights without further rounding. Count the combined share at Automation Levels 4 (AL4, “AI leads”) and 5 (AL5, “fully autonomous”). If no combined figure is published, add both shares from the same measurement and version. Department results, code-generation shares, capability benchmarks, unlabeled charts and unofficial estimates do not count. See Anthropic’s index methodology.

Index changes. Use the headline index version in effect when each measurement is first published. Routine task, weight or rating updates apply only to new measurements and must preserve company-wide scope and the meaning of AL4 or higher. Later methodology changes do not change whether past measurements count. Apply official error corrections published before settlement.

Timing. The measurement date or reporting period must end before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM Eastern Time; there is no publication deadline. MNX may settle YES early on one qualifying measurement; later declines do not change the outcome. NO requires Anthropic to publish a complete index history through December 2027 showing no qualifying measurement.

Fallback. If the index is unavailable, or MNX determines after the cutoff that incomplete published history prevents a reliable YES or NO determination, MNX will resolve the market at its discretion in the spirit of these terms.

MNX may interpret or amend these terms under the platform Terms, including for open positions, and correct or delay determinations before settlement. Settlement is final once completed.

ANTHTOP26 — Anthropic produces top AI in 2026

Settles to $1 if Anthropic produces the top AI model of 2026 as ranked by the Epoch Capabilities Index (a benchmark of AI capabilities created by Epoch AI), and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. Contracts settle to $1 if Anthropic produces the top AI model of 2026 on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI), a benchmark of AI capabilities created by Epoch AI, and $0 otherwise.

Top model. The top model is the model dated before January 1, 2027 with the highest general-ECI central estimate in Epoch's canonical score file (https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv) as of January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. This captures models released late in 2026 that Epoch scores in January; changes to the file after that time do not count. Confidence bounds and domain-specific or custom indices do not count.

Developer and ties. A model is produced by Anthropic if Epoch lists Anthropic as one of its organizations. If models from different developers tie for the top score, the market settles at $0.50 if Anthropic produced one of the tied models.

Fallback. If the score file is unavailable at that time, MNX uses the closest available Epoch publication of general-ECI scores or, failing that, a comparable method. Settlement is expected shortly after January 31, 2027.

Contract style. Binary future quoted between $0 and $1, so the price can be read as the market-implied probability of the outcome.

DISTILL — Open-weight AI maintains ECI gap 2027

Pays $1 if the leading open-weight AI model is within 11 points of the best publicly available model on the Epoch Capabilities Index at year-end 2027; otherwise $0.

DISTILL pays $1 if the highest-scoring eligible open-weight AI model is within 11 points of the highest-scoring eligible model on the general Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI); otherwise $0.

Measurement. Use the latest general ECI scores published by Epoch AI before January 1, 2028 at 00:00 UTC (the cutoff). Compare central estimates from the same update at their published precision, without further rounding.

Eligible models. A model must appear in those scores and be publicly available through an app, API or downloadable weights before the cutoff. It counts as open-weight if the weights needed to run the scored model were publicly downloadable before the cutoff, even with noncommercial or other use restrictions.

Evidence and changes. Reliable later records may establish the scores in effect at the cutoff. Ignore later model additions, evaluations and routine methodological refits. MNX may disregard erroneous or manipulated data.

Source changes and fallback. If Epoch rescales ECI, MNX may use a published conversion to preserve the equivalent 11-point gap. If ECI is unavailable, or rescaled without a reliable conversion, MNX will resolve the market at its discretion in the spirit of these terms.

Timing. MNX will not resolve before the cutoff and will make its final determination within 120 days afterward unless it announces an extension.

MNX determines eligibility, evidence reliability and fallback use. It may interpret or amend these terms under the platform Terms while positions remain open. When practicable, it intends to publish material methodology, evidence and amendments for review before settlement. Determinations may be corrected or delayed before settlement; settlement is final once completed.

DPREZ — Democrat wins 2028 presidential election

Settles to $1 if the Democratic candidate wins the 2028 US presidential election, and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. Contracts settle to $1 if the Democratic Party's presidential candidate wins the 2028 US presidential election, scheduled for November 7, 2028, and $0 otherwise. A candidate who is not the Democratic Party's candidate does not count, even if a party member.

Resolution sources. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC News have all called the race for the same candidate and none has retracted its call. MNX may delay settlement while the result is formally contested.

Fallback. If the three sources have not all called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market settles to $1 if the person inaugurated as president on that date was elected on the Democratic Party's ticket, and $0 otherwise.

Margin requirements. This market currently permits leverage. MNX may choose to require full collateralization in October 2028, meaning posted margin must cover each position's maximum possible loss: the price for a long, and one minus the price for a short (equivalent to 1x leverage). Before such a change takes effect, MNX may provide a period during which traders can post additional margin to, or reduce, positions that would not meet the new requirement. Positions that do not meet it once it takes effect may be liquidated.

Contract style. Binary future quoted between $0 and $1, so the price can be read as the market-implied probability of the outcome.

JENSEN26 — Jensen Huang out as NVIDIA CEO before 2027

Settles to $1 if Jensen Huang stops being Chief Executive Officer of NVIDIA, effective before January 1, 2027, and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. Contracts settle to $1 if Jensen Huang ceases to hold the position of Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of NVIDIA Corporation, for any reason, with effect before January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, and $0 otherwise. He must actually no longer be CEO: unlike markets that settle on an announcement, an announced departure that takes effect on or after January 1, 2027 settles to $0. NVIDIA includes any renamed, reincorporated or successor entity that continues its business.

What counts. Resignation, retirement, removal or termination by NVIDIA’s board, death, and any other event after which Mr. Huang no longer holds the CEO position count. They count even if he remains at NVIDIA in another role, such as chair, director, founder or adviser. The appointment of another person as CEO, interim CEO or acting CEO counts from its effective date, unless NVIDIA states that Mr. Huang remains CEO. A removal announced by NVIDIA counts from its effective date even if it is later disputed, rescinded or declared invalid, and a later return to the position does not change the outcome.

Effective date. The date that matters is the date the change takes effect, not the date it is announced or reported. A stated time is converted to ET. Where NVIDIA gives an effective date without a time, says the change takes effect at the end or close of a date, or says he serves through a date, the change takes effect on that date, so December 31, 2026 or earlier counts. A change described as effective immediately takes effect when it is announced. A death takes effect at the reported time of death, or on the reported date if no time is reported.

What does not count. A leave of absence, suspension, incapacity or delegation of duties does not by itself count, even if another person performs the role in the meantime. It counts only if NVIDIA states that Mr. Huang is no longer CEO, or appoints another person as CEO, interim CEO or acting CEO without stating that Mr. Huang remains CEO. Taking an additional role, such as executive chair, sharing the position with a co-CEO, or a change of title while he remains the principal executive officer does not count. Statements that he is considering or has been asked to leave, an offer to resign that has not taken effect, and reports of a board vote, plan or expected departure that NVIDIA has not confirmed do not count.

Resolution sources. NVIDIA’s press releases and its filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, in particular a Form 8-K reporting the change under Item 5.02. Statements by NVIDIA mean those filings and statements authorized by its board of directors; they prevail over statements by Mr. Huang or anyone else. A consensus of credible reporting is used where NVIDIA has made no statement, for example on a death, and to establish timing.

Timing. MNX may settle to $1 before the deadline once these sources establish that a qualifying change has taken effect. MNX will not settle to $0 before January 11, 2027, so that a change that took effect before the deadline but is reported afterwards can be counted. MNX may delay settlement while it remains unclear whether or when a change took effect.

Amendments and partial settlement. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms. If no sufficiently reliable resolution method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available; any partial settlement is terminal for the settled portion. MNX may correct or delay a determination before it is effected, and settlement is final once effected.

Contract style. Binary future quoted between $0 and $1, so the price can be read as the market-implied probability of the outcome.

PNP27 — P vs NP resolved before 2028

Settles to $1 if P vs NP is resolved before 2028: a verified proof that P = NP, that P ≠ NP, or that the question cannot be decided in standard mathematics (independent of ZFC), and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. P vs NP asks whether every problem whose solutions can be verified in polynomial time can also be solved in polynomial time, as stated in the Clay Mathematics Institute’s official problem description, Stephen Cook’s “The P versus NP Problem.”

Subject to the verification, review, fallback, partial-settlement, and amendment provisions below, contracts settle to $1 if a complete claimed resolution of P vs NP is made public before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET and is verified as provided below, and $0 otherwise. Any solver qualifies: human, AI system, or any combination.

The qualifying event is the public release of the claimed resolution before that deadline—the Release Cutoff. Verification may complete after the Release Cutoff, subject to the Evidence Cutoff below.

What counts as a resolution. Any one of the following counts, and each settles the market at $1:

(1) A proof that P = NP.

(2) A proof that P ≠ NP.

(3) A proof that neither P = NP nor P ≠ NP is provable in ZFC—Zermelo–Fraenkel set theory with the axiom of choice.

For (3), a result about another axiom system qualifies if it also establishes the stated independence from ZFC. Independence only from a weaker system, or from another system without establishing independence from ZFC, does not qualify.

The independence result must concern the official P vs NP problem. If it uses an alternative formal statement, the equivalence to a faithful standard formalization of that problem must be provable in ZFC.

Mathematical foundations and assumptions. Proofs of (1) or (2) may use any recognized foundation in ordinary mathematical use, including the standard mathematical foundations of recognized proof assistants. They need not be formulated in or reduced to ZFC. The ordinary foundations of a proof assistant do not, by themselves, require the expert-acceptance route merely because their strength differs from that of ZFC.

A proof relying on additional foundational axioms beyond those ordinary foundations qualifies only under the expert-acceptance route in (b). That acceptance must specifically recognize the result as settling P vs NP notwithstanding those additional axioms; acceptance merely that the conclusion follows if the assumptions hold is insufficient.

For (3), the system being shown unable to decide P vs NP is distinct from the mathematical framework used to prove that inability. An explicit assumption that ZFC is consistent is permitted. Any additional consistency, soundness, or other foundational hypothesis beyond this and the ordinary foundations described above requires acceptance under (b), specifically addressing why the independence result qualifies notwithstanding that hypothesis.

All additional axioms and explicit hypotheses material to the claimed resolution must be publicly disclosed.

Excluded results. A result about a restricted model of computation, a resolution of a reformulated question, or a conditional result relying on an unproved conjecture does not count unless the result also establishes a qualifying resolution of the official problem.

Foundational assumptions expressly permitted above do not disqualify a result merely because it is stated conditionally. Relabeling an open conjecture as an axiom does not, by itself, make that assumption permissible.

Verification. The same two verification routes are available for all three kinds of resolution, subject to the requirements above for additional axioms and hypotheses. “Verified” means either of the following, as determined by MNX:

(a) Formal verification. The resolution is formally verified in a recognized machine-checkable proof assistant, such as Lean, Rocq/Coq, or Isabelle, and the verification is independently reproduced from publicly available proof materials.

The formal statement must establish the qualifying result in full. MNX must judge, with reference to relevant expert commentary, that the formal definitions and statement faithfully capture the official problem. For an independence result, this review must also cover the formalization of ZFC, provability, and any stated hypotheses.

Independent reproduction must include an audit of the assumptions and dependencies used by the proof. The proof must not rely on unfinished proof placeholders, unproved intermediate claims presented as established facts, the claimed conclusion itself as an assumption, or disabled required verification checks. Its foundational axioms and hypotheses must satisfy the provisions above.

An incomplete or otherwise nonqualifying formalization does not satisfy this route, but the underlying mathematical result may still qualify under (b).

(b) Expert acceptance. The resolution is recognized by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or it has achieved clear acceptance among recognized complexity theorists, evidenced by multiple independent public affirmations of correctness from recognized specialists and the absence of credible unresolved objections at least 90 days after release.

Where the provisions above require explicit acceptance of additional axioms or hypotheses, that acceptance must address those assumptions and the result’s qualification as a resolution under these terms.

Clay Mathematics Institute recognition is sufficient under this route without a separate 90-day waiting period, subject to the other eligibility requirements.

A preprint, press release, announcement by the solver or its developer, or formalization whose statement has not been judged faithful is not verification by itself.

Review and erroneous verification. A qualifying event counts when the verification condition is first met and is not undone by later shifts in attention.

However, if before settlement the verification is discovered to have been erroneous, the trigger is void and the market continues. Examples include a formal statement shown not to capture the required result, a formal proof that fails independent reproduction, an undisclosed or impermissible assumption or unfinished proof dependency, or a retraction of the resolution or of the affirmations relied upon.

MNX may settle YES early once it determines that a qualifying event occurred.

Cutoffs and final determination. If no complete claimed resolution is made public before the Release Cutoff, or no such claim satisfies the verification condition by June 30, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET—the Evidence Cutoff—the market settles $0 after the Evidence Cutoff.

MNX will not settle this market at $0 before the Evidence Cutoff. MNX may settle YES earlier once verification is met and may extend the Evidence Cutoff under the amendment provision, for example while a claim released before the Release Cutoff remains under active expert review.

Fallbacks. If the Clay Mathematics Institute ceases operating or no longer maintains the problem description, the official statement remains the one in Cook’s problem description as published by the Clay Mathematics Institute before this market first opens for trading.

The proof assistants named above are illustrative rather than an exclusive list. A comparable recognized proof assistant or successor may be used if it meets the same verification requirements.

Partial settlement. If MNX determines that no sufficiently reliable resolution method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available. Any partial settlement is terminal for the settled portion.

Determinations, amendments, and finality. MNX determines from the public information reasonably available when a complete claimed resolution was made public, whether a formal statement is faithful, whether a claimed independence result establishes independence from ZFC, whether foundations and assumptions satisfy these terms, and whether expert acceptance is clear. MNX may refer to specialists in mathematical logic when evaluating foundational or independence questions.

MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms. When practicable, MNX intends to publish material methodology, evidence, and amendments and permit review for objective errors before settlement.

MNX may correct or delay a determination before it is effected, and settlement is final once effected.

RSENATE26 — Republicans keep Senate in 2026

Settles to $1 if the Republican Party wins control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections, and $0 otherwise.

Settlement. Contracts settle to $1 if the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 midterm election, and $0 otherwise.

Definition of control. A party wins control if it wins a majority of the Senate’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority, the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency wins control. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying those criteria, control is assigned to the party of the first President Pro Tempore selected by the 120th Congress.

Included elections. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for those elections determine attribution of the relevant seat even if held after November. A vacant seat with no such November election is attributed to the party of the most recent senator to hold it.

Seat attribution. A contested seat is attributed to the party under which the senator was elected; a later party change or vacancy before Congress formally organizes does not change that attribution. A seat not contested in the election is attributed to the party holding it on Election Day; later changes do not alter that attribution. An independent is counted with a party if the senator caucuses with it, or a senator-elect announces an intent to do so. If that decision remains unknown on Election Day, the market may remain open until the earlier of an announcement or January 4, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Without an announcement by then, the senator is not counted for any party.

Resolution and timing. MNX will settle promptly once control is mathematically determined under these rules; settlement does not require waiting until Congress convenes. Outstanding runoffs or unresolved independent caucus decisions may delay settlement. Resolution sources are official information from relevant state election authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Contract style: Binary future quoted between $0 and $1, so the price can be read as the market-implied probability of the outcome.

SSITOP — SSI produces top AI before 2028

Settles to $1 if a model produced by Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI), released before 2028, ever ranks #1 on Epoch AI's capabilities leaderboard (ECI), and $0 otherwise.

Settlement condition. Contracts settle to $1 if, at any time, a model produced by Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI) and publicly released before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET is displayed as the highest-scoring model on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) leaderboard by general-ECI central estimate, and $0 otherwise. Holding the number-one rank at any moment suffices; it does not matter what is released or displayed afterward. For determinations made after the release deadline, the comparison is among models released before that deadline.

Developer, release, and ties. A model is produced by SSI if Epoch lists SSI as one of its organizations; if SSI is acquired or merged, models Epoch attributes only to the acquirer or combined company do not count. A model is publicly released once outside users can generally access it, for example through an app, an API, or downloadable weights. A model tied for the highest score counts as the highest-scoring model.

Score reference. General-ECI central estimates control (canonical score file: https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv); confidence bounds and domain-specific or custom indices do not count.

Measurement Cutoff. A qualifying measurement must first be published by April 30, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET (the Measurement Cutoff), unless MNX announces an extension under the amendment provision. MNX may settle YES or partially before the Measurement Cutoff, but will not settle NO before it; after the cutoff, MNX may apply the fallback or partial-settlement provisions.

Review of displays. A qualifying display counts when first shown and is not undone by an ordinary later methodological refit. MNX may disregard a display that it determines resulted from an error, correction, unauthorized or manipulated publication, or a non-general index, and may settle YES early; early partial settlement remains available under the partial-settlement provision.

Fallbacks. If the ECI is discontinued or MNX determines it is no longer timely, reliable, or comparable, MNX may use a comparable successor ranking or another method in its sole discretion; a fallback determination that an eligible SSI model was the top model resolves YES. If no sufficiently reliable resolution method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available.

Amendments and finality. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms; MNX may correct or delay a determination before it is effected, and settlement is final once effected.

TAKEOFF — ECI hits 200 before 2028

Settles to $1 if any AI model released before 2028 reaches a score of 200 on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI), a broad benchmark of AI capabilities, and $0 otherwise. For scale, GPT-5 scores 150 on the index.

Settlement condition. The Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) is a benchmark of AI capabilities created by Epoch AI. Subject to the fallback, partial-settlement, review, and amendment provisions below, contracts settle to $1 if any AI model publicly released before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET receives an official general-ECI central estimate of 200.0 or higher, and $0 otherwise. The qualifying event is the model's release before the deadline; its qualifying score may be published after the deadline in due course.

Score reference. For primary resolution, "ECI" means Epoch AI's general ECI, and "score" means the central eci value in Epoch's canonical general score file, currently https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv, or a successor source designated by MNX. Confidence bounds, bootstrap draws, metadata files, and domain-specific or custom ECI values do not count unless MNX expressly designates otherwise. Where a rounded display and the canonical score file disagree, the score file controls.

Review of observations. An official qualifying observation for an eligible model counts when first published and is not undone by an ordinary later methodological refit. MNX may disregard an apparent crossing that it determines resulted from an error, correction, unauthorized or manipulated publication, or was not a general-ECI central estimate. MNX may settle the market early after it determines that the threshold was reached.

Rescaling. If Epoch re-anchors or rescales the general ECI and publishes a conversion, MNX may convert the threshold using that mapping. Relevant reference anchors are Claude 3.5 Sonnet = 130.0 and GPT-5 = 150.0. MNX may treat a rescale with no usable conversion as discontinuation or apply another method it considers appropriate.

Fallbacks. If Epoch is discontinued or MNX determines that the general ECI is no longer timely, reliable, comparable, or available, MNX may, in its sole discretion, use, combine, skip, modify, or replace one or more alternative sources or methods based on the best information reasonably available. These may include reconstructing the ECI under an Epoch methodology, mapping another reputable capability index such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index to the ECI scale, or another method MNX considers appropriate. MNX determines trigger occurrence, source reliability, model eligibility, data inputs, model matching, fitting treatment, and fallback availability.

Unless MNX announces otherwise under an amendment, a fallback method is used to determine whether an eligible model reached the 200-equivalent threshold. A fallback determination that the threshold was reached resolves YES. If Epoch does not score an eligible model in due course, MNX may treat that delay as a fallback trigger and assess the model using fallback methods. MNX will not settle this market at $0 before the release deadline, and will not settle it at $0 afterward solely because a qualifying measurement is not yet available. MNX will make its final determination within 120 days after the release deadline unless it announces an extension under the amendment provision. An official qualifying Epoch observation continues to resolve YES after a fallback trigger.

Partial settlement. If MNX determines that no sufficiently reliable resolution source or method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available, before or after the release deadline. This may include one or more valid MNX exchange-oracle observations at or near a source-cessation time, the deadline, or another time selected by MNX. MNX may disregard or adjust observations it considers stale, anomalous, illiquid, or manipulated. Any exchange-oracle input is an internal market-derived settlement convention, not independent evidence that the ECI threshold was or was not reached.

Determinations, amendments, and finality. MNX determines from the public information reasonably available when a model was publicly released, whether a model was scored in due course, and whether a source or method is discontinued, unavailable, unreliable, or no longer comparable. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms. When practicable, MNX intends to publish material methodology, evidence, and amendments and permit review for objective errors before settlement. MNX may correct or delay a determination before it is effected, and settlement is final once effected.