Valuation Futures Contract Specification

Last updated: October 19, 2026

Valuation futures settle on the first qualifying event under the rules below: a public listing, acquisition, dissolution, bankruptcy, or expiry. For a public listing, the settlement value is the company’s market capitalization on its First Trading Day, in billions of US dollars. MNX may also wind down a market under §6.

1. Markets

All four markets expire on December 31, 2027, at 23:59:59 UTC, subject to §3.

The market follows the entity holding substantially all of the company’s AI business, whether the named entity, a holding company, or a successor. A restructuring alone does not trigger settlement.

A subsidiary, regional-business, or minority carve-out listing does not qualify while the tracked entity remains private.

2. Public listing

A Listing Event occurs when shares of the entity the market follows under §1 begin trading on a recognized public stock exchange. Initial public offerings (IPOs), direct listings, and mergers with public shell companies qualify.

The First Trading Day is the first day for which the primary listing exchange publishes an official closing price. If the initial trading day has no official close, the next trading day with one applies, normally within five trading days. Beyond that, MNX determines the settlement price from the best available official data.

The settlement value is the official closing price on the First Trading Day multiplied by the company’s basic common or ordinary shares outstanding immediately after the listing transaction completes. All share classes count at the listed class’s price. Shares issuable under unexercised options, warrants, restricted stock units or convertibles, and IPO overallotment shares, are excluded.

The result is expressed in billions of USD and rounded to the nearest settlement tick. Halfway values round up.

The share count comes from the most authoritative public filing: the final IPO prospectus, effective direct-listing registration statement, or post-redemption disclosures for a public-shell merger. Company and exchange publications may supplement it. Major data providers’ headline market capitalizations are used only to resolve genuine ambiguity in the filings.

Non-USD prices are converted at the WM/Refinitiv 4:00 p.m. London closing spot rate for the First Trading Day. If unavailable, a comparable widely used institutional closing rate applies and is identified in the settlement posting.

Trading halts when the settlement calculation is posted. Resting orders are cancelled, and new orders are no longer accepted.

3. Expiry and imminent listings

A listing qualifies if its First Trading Day occurs by expiry.

If, by expiry, the final IPO offering price has been publicly announced, or the exchange has formally scheduled a direct listing or public-shell merger listing, but the First Trading Day has not occurred, settlement is deferred to the Listing Event, normally for no more than 30 calendar days after expiry.

If the listing is withdrawn, or no First Trading Day occurs within that period and none is imminent, §5 applies using the original expiry date and time.

4. Acquisition, dissolution, and bankruptcy

If the company is acquired before a Listing Event, the acquisition’s closing triggers settlement to the consideration implied for 100% of the company’s equity. For a partial acquisition, this is the per-share deal price multiplied by the total basic share count.

Consideration is valued as follows:

• Cash at face value.
• Listed shares of the acquirer at their official closing price on the deal’s closing date, with currency conversion under §2 using that date.
• Unlisted shares or other securities at the value assigned in the definitive deal documents.
• Contingent consideration, including earnouts, contingent value rights, and milestone payments, is excluded.

The value is expressed in billions of USD and rounded under §2. A terminated or abandoned acquisition does not trigger settlement.

Dissolution or bankruptcy results in settlement at zero. A restructuring covered by §1 is not a dissolution.

5. Expiry fallback: Reference Private-Market Valuation

If no listing, acquisition, dissolution, or bankruptcy qualifies by expiry, after applying §3, the market settles to its Reference Private-Market Valuation. The first available tier below determines that value.

The Valuation Time is the original expiry date and time, including after an unsuccessful listing extension. For an early wind-down, it is the announcement time. Settlement delays do not change the Valuation Time or the six-month lookback.

Every input must be publicly verifiable without payment when the calculation is posted. Later publications may establish which transactions had completed, which terms had been agreed, how many shares were outstanding, or what a platform publicly displayed at the Valuation Time. Later transactions and valuation updates are ineligible. Fund filings follow the publication rule in tier 2.

MNX’s order book is never an input. The settlement posting links enough source information to support the inputs and their relevant dates and allow independent recomputation.

Tier 1: Qualifying transaction

A priced funding round, tender offer, or secondary sale qualifies if it:

• Has at least $1 billion in total transaction consideration; and
• Completed within the six months preceding the Valuation Time.

The valuation is the implied post-money valuation of the qualifying transaction whose valuation was most recently agreed. A later closing at unchanged pricing does not reset that date.

An announcement or commitment alone does not qualify.

Tier 2: Registered-fund valuations

The valuation is the median per-share fair value in the most recent holdings filings of funds registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission that were public by the Valuation Time, multiplied by the company’s total share count at that time, as most recently documented in public sources.

Values are pooled across share classes. Preferred shares are treated as converting one-to-one unless public documents specify otherwise.

A filing first published after the Valuation Time is ineligible even if its reporting period ended earlier.

Tier 3: Public platform valuations

The valuation is the median implied valuation publicly displayed at the Valuation Time on recognized secondary-market platforms. Sources include Forge’s public company pages (including figures syndicated through Yahoo Finance), Notice, and comparable public sources as they become available.

The evidence must establish the value displayed at the Valuation Time; a later live quote alone is insufficient.

Tier 4: Operator-documented valuation

If none of the preceding tiers is available, MNX determines the value as of the Valuation Time from the best available public information.

6. Early wind-down

MNX may wind down a market before expiry if it fails to meet desired trading-volume thresholds or if MNX itself is winding down.

The announcement serves as the settlement posting and halts trading. The value is calculated under §5 and fixed at the announcement time, subject to correction under §7.

7. Corrections and unforeseen events

MNX may correct objective errors in settlement calculations or source data. Corrections must follow the applicable valuation time and source rules.

If an event or valuation rule in §§1–5 cannot be applied, or would produce a value clearly unrepresentative of the company’s market capitalization, MNX determines a value in good faith and a commercially reasonable manner. This authority applies to genuine edge cases and does not replace otherwise applicable rules.

When MNX determines a value under tier 4 or the preceding paragraph, it publishes the calculation and reasoning.

8. Amendments

During beta, MNX may amend these terms, including for open positions.

Material changes to these terms or the oracle methodology are normally announced before taking effect. Changes that protect positions or the market, bug fixes, and clarifications that cannot change any settlement outcome may take effect immediately.

9. Historical examples

These examples assume a hypothetical expiry or early wind-down with a Valuation Time on December 31, 2025.

OPENAI would resolve at 500 ($500 billion). The completed October 2025 secondary tender involved approximately $6.6 billion at a $500 billion valuation, qualifying under tier 1. December’s closing of the earlier round priced at $300 billion does not reset when that valuation was agreed, so the October tender’s more recent pricing takes priority. October tender, earlier round pricing, December closing.

ANTHROPIC would resolve at 183 ($183 billion). Its September 2025 Series F raised $13 billion at a $183 billion post-money valuation. November’s Microsoft/Nvidia commitment announcements alone do not establish a completed transaction. The February 2026 Series G at $380 billion falls after the Valuation Time. Series F, November commitments, Series G.