Valuation Futures Contract Specification

Last updated: September 15, 2026

This document is the master specification for MNX valuation futures: numeric futures on the market capitalization of private companies. It defines what you are trading, how the price forms, and exactly how each market settles. Terms that vary by company — the underlying legal entity, the expiry date, the settlement parameters — are set per market in Annex A. Everything else in this document applies identically to every valuation futures market. While the platform is in beta, this specification is subject to change, and changes may apply to open positions (§12).

1. Contract summary

2. Price formation before settlement

Before settlement, prices are set entirely by trading on MNX's internal order book; there is no external price feed. Company announcements — funding rounds at a stated valuation, secondary sales, IPO filings — move prices only insofar as traders trade on them.

Oracle price. The oracle price is an 8-hour exponential moving average (EMA) of the order-book mid price, falling back to the last trade when no two-sided quote is available. The oracle price governs margin checks, liquidation eligibility, and the tradable price band. Unrealized profit-and-loss shown in the interface is computed against the oracle price. The full oracle methodology is published separately; changes to it are announced at least 7 days in advance (bug fixes exempt).

Tradable band.Orders may only fill within ±20% of the oracle price. Around major news, fair value can move further than the band; when that happens, trading continues but fills are pinned at the band edge while the oracle converges over the following hours. This is by design: the band is the market's manipulation protection and is never widened for events.

The band does not limit settlement.The tradable band constrains pre-settlement fills only. The final settlement price is determined entirely by the rules in §§5–8 and may fall far outside the band prevailing before settlement. See §10 for what happens when a settlement gap exceeds an account's margin.

Liquidation. A position whose margin falls below the maintenance requirement (16⅔% of notional at the oracle price) becomes eligible for liquidation and is closed against the order book within the tradable band. Liquidation is a pre-settlement mechanism only; at settlement, the settlement payout mechanics in §10 apply instead.

3. Fees

Standard trading fees are zero for makers and 20 basis points (0.20%) of trade value for takers. See the fee schedule for examples and how to read the current per-market parameters.

4. Settlement events — overview

Each market settles on exactly one of the following triggers, whichever occurs first:

1. Listing Event(§5) — the company's shares begin public trading. Settles to day-one market capitalization.
2. Acquisition (§7.1) — the company is acquired before listing. Settles to the implied equity value of the deal.
3. Dissolution or bankruptcy (§7.2) — settles at 0.
4. Expiry with no trigger (§8) — no Listing Event or fallback event by the Expiry date. Settles to the Reference Private-Market Valuation.

Separately, MNX may wind down a market early under the conditions in §9.

Corporate restructurings do not by themselves trigger settlement; see §7.3.

Unforeseen events.If a rule in §§5–8 cannot be applied to events as they actually occur, or would produce a settlement value manifestly unrepresentative of the company's market capitalization, MNX will determine the settlement value in good faith and a commercially reasonable manner, post the full calculation and reasoning publicly, and apply the review window in §11. This clause is a backstop for genuine edge cases, not an alternative to the rules below.

5. Settlement at a Listing Event

5.1 What counts as a Listing Event

A Listing Eventoccurs when shares of the underlying entity named in Annex A — or a successor entity holding substantially all of the company's AI business (§7.3) — begin trading on a recognized public stock exchange. A traditional IPO, a direct listing, and a listing via merger with a public shell company (SPAC) all count, with "First Trading Day" defined the same way for each.

Partial listings do not count. If a subsidiary, a regional arm, or a minority carve-out lists while the tracked entity remains private, that is not a Listing Event; the contract continues to track the entity named in Annex A. The operator will post a public determination promptly — normally within 5 business days — of any ambiguous corporate event, subject to the review window in §11.

5.2 First Trading Day and the official close

The First Trading Day is the first day on which the primary listing exchange publishes an official closing price for the shares (normally the closing-auction price). If no official close is published on the first day of trading — for example, the stock ends the day halted, or the exchange marks the close as under review — the First Trading Day is deemed to be the next trading day on which an official close is published, normally within 5 trading days. Beyond that, the operator determines a settlement price from the best available official data, with the calculation posted publicly and subject to the review window in §11.

5.3 Settlement value

Settlement value = official closing price on the First Trading Day × Settlement Share Count, expressed in billions of USD and rounded to the nearest integer tick. Values exactly halfway between ticks round up (1300.5 → 1301).

Settlement Share Count. The Settlement Share Count is the total number of shares of all classesof the entity's common or ordinary stock outstanding immediately following completion of the listing transaction, on a basic(not fully diluted) basis — the standard "basic shares outstanding" headline convention:

• All share classes count, including unlisted classes (e.g., high-vote founder shares); unlisted classes are valued at the listed class's closing price.
• Shares issuable under unexercised options, warrants, RSUs, or convertible instruments are excluded.
• For a traditional IPO, shares issuable under an overallotment (greenshoe) option are excluded — the base offering share count applies, regardless of later exercise.

The count is taken from the most authoritative available public filing for the listing path — the final prospectus for a traditional IPO, the effective registration statement for a direct listing, the post-redemption disclosures for a SPAC merger — supplemented where necessary by the exchange's or company's own published figures. Headline market capitalizations from major data providers are used only as a tiebreaker where the filings are genuinely ambiguous.

Currency. If the primary listing is not USD-denominated, the closing price is converted to USD at the WM/Refinitiv 4:00 p.m. London closing spot rate for the First Trading Day or, if that rate is unavailable for that date, a comparable widely used institutional closing rate, identified in the settlement posting.

5.4 Calculation, halt, and execution

• The operator computes the settlement value from at least two independent public sources and posts the full calculation publicly before executing settlement.
• Trading remains open through the First Trading Day. Trading halts at the moment the settlement calculation is posted — not before. At the halt, all resting orders are cancelled and no new orders are accepted.
• The 24-hour review window (§11) then runs. Only after it closes are positions settled: every position closes at the final price and margin plus realized profit-and-loss is returned to your balance automatically, subject to the available-balance limitation in §10. No action is required from you.

6. Expiry boundary rule

A Listing Event qualifies under §5 only if the First Trading Day occurs on or before the Expiry date and time stated in Annex A (expressed in UTC).

Imminent-listing exception. If, on or before Expiry, the final offering price of an IPO has been publicly announced — or, for a direct listing or SPAC merger, the listing has been formally scheduled by the exchange — but the First Trading Day has not yet occurred, settlement is deferred to the Listing Event, normally for no more than 30 calendar days after Expiry. If the listing is withdrawn, or no First Trading Day occurs within that period and none is imminent, the market settles under §8 using data as of the original Expiry date.

7. Fallback events

7.1 Acquisition

If the company is acquired before a Listing Event, the market settles when the deal closes, to the implied equity value of the acquisition — the total consideration for 100% of the company's equity, in billions of USD, rounded per §5.3. If less than 100% of equity is acquired, the implied equity value is the per-share deal price multiplied by the total (basic) share count.

Consideration is valued as follows:

• Cash at face value.
• Listed stockof the acquirer at the acquirer's official closing price on the deal closing date (currency conversion per §5.3).
• Unlisted stock or other securities at the value ascribed to them in the definitive deal documents.
• Contingent consideration — earnouts, CVRs, milestone payments — is excluded.

A terminated or abandoned deal does not trigger settlement; the market continues.

7.2 Dissolution or bankruptcy

The market settles at 0.

7.3 Corporate restructuring

The market follows the entity that holds substantially all of the company's AI business. A restructuring on the way to a listing is a step on the IPO path, not a dissolution, and does not trigger settlement. Where a restructuring makes the tracked entity ambiguous, the operator posts a public determination promptly — normally within 5 business days — subject to the review window in §11. Annex A records structure notes for each market, including any known parent–subsidiary arrangements.

8. Expiry fallback — Reference Private-Market Valuation

If no Listing Event or fallback event occurs by Expiry (after applying §6), the market settles to the Reference Private-Market Valuation. This calculation uses external, public information only — MNX's own order book is never an input.

Reproducibility rule. No input may be used in a settlement calculation under this section unless, at the time of posting, any member of the public can verify it without payment. Every settlement posting links its sources in sufficient detail for full independent recomputation, and MNX additionally captures each source through an independent web-archive service at the time of posting.

All values are taken as of the settlement date (or the announcement date, for an early wind-down under §9). The hierarchy is:

1. Qualifying transaction. The implied post-money valuation of the most recent completed priced funding round, tender offer, or secondary sale with total consideration of at least $1 billion, completed within the 6 months preceding the settlement date and documented by at least two independent public sources. Announced, pending, or committed-but-unclosed transactions do not qualify. (The size threshold and freshness window are provisional parameters, set per market in Annex A.)
2. Registered-fund marks.If tier 1 fails: the median per-share fair value reported for the company's shares in the most recent publicly available holdings filings of SEC-registered funds (Forms N-PORT, N-CSR, and equivalents) as of the settlement date, multiplied by the company's total share count as most recently documented in public sources. Marks are pooled across share classes, treating preferred shares as converting one-to-one unless public documents state otherwise. The reporting lag inherent to fund filings (typically a quarter plus 60 days) is disclosed in the settlement posting.
3. Public platform figures.If tier 2 fails: the median implied valuation publicly displayed for the company on recognized secondary-market platforms — currently including Forge's public company pages (forgeglobal.com, also syndicated via Yahoo Finance) and Notice (notice.co), together with comparable public sources as they become available — each captured and independently archived at the time of posting.
4. Operator-documented price. If nothing above is available: an operator-determined settlement price from the best available public information, with the full calculation and reasoning posted publicly.

In every tier, MNX posts the calculation publicly before settlement, and the standard 24-hour review window (§11) applies before positions close.

9. Early wind-down

MNX may wind down a market before Expiry if it fails to hit desired volume thresholds, or if MNX itself is winding down.

A wind-down follows the same mechanics as any other settlement. The wind-down announcement is the settlement posting: the settlement value is calculated under §8 and is fixed at the moment of the announcement. Trading halts at the announcement, the review window in §11 applies, and positions then close at the fixed value automatically, with margin and realized profit-and-loss returned to balances per §10. No action is required from holders.

10. Settlement gap and payout risk

Settlement is a single discrete repricing. Because the settlement value is not limited by the tradable band (§2), it can land far from the last oracle price — at 3x maximum leverage, a move of more than ~33% from an account's entry leaves that account with negative equity, and normal liquidation cannot intervene in a discrete event.

An account whose settlement loss exceeds its posted margin loses its full margin and no more; its balance does not go negative and no debt is pursued. A winning account's claim is its positive equity at the settlement price, but the amount actually paid is capped by the balance remaining in that market's perpetual contract when the account is closed.

There is no insurance fund or market-wide pro-rata allocation for a settlement shortfall. If losing accounts' margin is insufficient to fund all winning claims, the order in which accounts are closed can affect payouts. A winning account may receive less than its calculated positive equity, including zero if the contract balance has already been depleted.

11. Review window and disputes

After any settlement calculation is posted (under §5, §7, §8, or §9), a 24-hour review window runs before positions close.

• Who can flag. Anyone may flag a suspected error through the published dispute channel during the window.
• Grounds for abort. The operator may abort a posted settlement only for objective errors: an arithmetic mistake, use of a source or share count inconsistent with this specification, source data subsequently corrected by its publisher, or a manifest error of similar character. Disagreement with the market outcome is not grounds for abort.
• Recalculation. If a settlement is aborted, a corrected calculation is posted promptly — normally within 72 hours — and a fresh 24-hour review window applies to it.

Only after a review window closes without abort are positions settled and balances released.

12. Amendments

Beta status. While the platform is in beta, this specification is subject to change, and changes may apply to open positions.

Material changes to this specification are announced in advance of taking effect. Changes to the oracle methodology additionally carry the specific notice period stated in §2. Bug fixes and clarifications that cannot change any settlement outcome are exempt.

13. Worked examples

Example 1 — settlement at a Listing Event (profit)

• You buy 10.0 XYZ at 1300 (you believe XYZ will list above a $1.3T valuation). Notional = 13,000 USDM; at 2x leverage you post 6,500 USDM margin.
• The market trades up to 1450 on funding-round news. Unrealized profit: 10 × (1450 − 1300) = 1,500 USDM.
• XYZ lists. The official day-one close × Settlement Share Count implies a $1.55T market capitalization. The operator posts the calculation (1550); trading halts at the posting and resting orders are cancelled.
• The 24-hour review window passes without abort.
• Your position closes at 1550. You receive 6,500 (margin) + 10 × (1550 − 1300) = 2,500 profit = 9,000 USDM.

Example 2 — settlement gap through margin (loss and payout risk)

• You buy 10.0 XYZ at 400 at maximum (3x) leverage, posting 1,333.4 USDM margin against 4,000 USDM notional.
• The oracle drifts to ~380 ahead of the IPO. Your position remains above maintenance margin, so no liquidation occurs.
• The IPO prices poorly and the day-one close implies a market capitalization of 240 — far below the pre-settlement tradable band. The band does not limit settlement (§2), and because settlement is a single discrete event, no liquidation could trigger on the way down.
• Your settlement loss is 10 × (400 − 240) = 1,600 USDM, exceeding your 1,333.4 margin. Under §10, you lose your margin and nothing more. There is no insurance fund to cover the 266.6 USDM shortfall. Winning accounts are paid only from the balance remaining in this market's perpetual contract when each account is closed, so they are not guaranteed full payment.

Example 3 — hypothetical §8 resolution of the current markets at end of 2025

Suppose the OPENAI and ANTHROPIC markets had resolved on December 31, 2025 — via an early wind-down announced that day (§9) or a hypothetical Expiry — settling to the Reference Private-Market Valuation (§8). Because §8 uses public inputs only, both settlements are exact and permanently verifiable:

OPENAI settles at exactly 500. Tier 1 applies: on October 2, 2025, OpenAI completed a $6.6 billion secondary tender at a $500 billion valuation — a completed transaction above the size threshold, within the 6-month window, documented by multiple independent public sources. The ~$850 billion primary round did not close until early 2026 and is irrelevant to a December 31, 2025 settlement date.

ANTHROPIC settles at exactly 183. Tier 1 applies: the September 2025 Series F raised $13 billion at a $183 billion post-money valuation. The Microsoft/Nvidia strategic commitment announced in November 2025 at a reported ~$350 billion implied valuation does not qualify — it was an announced commitment, not a completed priced transaction, as of year-end — and the $380 billion Series G closed in February 2026, after the settlement date. Tier definitions decide real money.

Tier 2, had it been needed: dozens of SEC-registered fund vehicles held each name and reported per-share fair-value marks for the period ending December 31, 2025 in public filings on EDGAR. Because those filings are permanently archived, a tier-2 settlement for this date could be computed exactly — today or in ten years.

The timing lesson. Both companies closed primary rounds within weeks of this hypothetical date at far higher values — OpenAI at roughly $850 billion in early 2026, Anthropic at $380 billion in February 2026. A December 31, 2025 resolution would nonetheless have settled OPENAI at 500 and ANTHROPIC at 183: values a long position would have hated, and that no one could dispute. That is the trade §8 makes deliberately — it prices what is completed and publicly documented on the settlement date, not what is rumored or imminent, in exchange for settlements anyone can recompute from public sources, forever.

Annex A — Current markets

† For these markets, the tracked entity follows §7.3 through any ongoing or future restructuring: whichever entity — the named onshore company, a Hong Kong or other holding entity, or a successor — holds substantially all of the company's AI business. A listing of any such entity is a Listing Event.

Entity names in this annex should be verified against current corporate filings before publication and updated on any restructuring, per §7.3.