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AI Council Resolution

AI Council Resolution uses the median of three top AI models' answers to a market's resolution prompt. The models are selected using the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI).

Each market provides its model-selection cutoff and exact prompt. The prompt specifies the answer's units, numeric format, and range. Any minimum or maximum settlement value is set by the market's terms.

  1. Select the three highest-ranked models on the ECI that have generally available first-party APIs immediately before the model-selection cutoff, at most one per organization (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic, Moonshot) as attributed by ECI. Break ties alphabetically by model name.
  2. Use the latest ranking published before the cutoff and ignore later revisions. If ECI is unavailable, use the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. If both are unavailable, the exchange selects a comparable benchmark before any queries.
  3. Query the API model matching the leaderboard entry, using the entry's configuration where specified and provider defaults otherwise. Keep the model version and settings fixed across attempts.
  4. Each attempt is a fresh request with only the market's resolution prompt: no system prompt, developer prompt or tools. Provider defaults that cannot be disabled are accepted as part of the model.
  5. A valid response is a single number in the format and range the market's prompt specifies, with optional surrounding whitespace. A percent sign is allowed only if the market's prompt explicitly permits it. Use each model's first valid response. Retry invalid responses, errors, and timeouts, up to ten attempts per model.
  6. If a model gives no valid response in ten attempts, replace it with the highest-ranked eligible model from the next-ranked organization not yet tried, under the same ranking and rules. Keep accepted responses. If no replacement qualifies, the exchange determines the resolution value using the best available information, including any accepted responses, and reasonable judgment in the spirit of the market's terms. Keep the cutoff's ranking and eligibility fixed throughout.

The exchange may modify this methodology in the spirit of these terms, including after markets using it have been listed.